Foreign trade situation was analysed first half of the year 2004 (2)

500 million dollar and 30.

400 million dollar, grow compared to the same period 25% with 40% , increase rate raised 10-5 than May percent. Overall and character, the export of heavy goods is main outside sufferring, need to anabiosis in the round the effect that takes the factor such as situation with dollar exchange rate, was not restrained the effect that invests excessive growth, if the mobile phone reachs his,the export of fittings, rolled steel increases to be in compared to the same period 100% above. From the watch the heavy goods of 3 imports increase rate to look, below the setting that gets effective apparently in measure of macroscopical adjusting control, a few heavy goods, the entrance that is like rolled steel, soja from 1 turn into to the fast growth April negative growth. Among them the entrance increase rate of rolled steel appears successive the fall of two months, imported June compared to the same period increase rate dropped 4.

65% , deduct rise in price element, rolled steel entrance drops compared to the same period 29.

9% . Because at present the stock of soja adds the trade issue with Brazil higher, soja import rises 57 from 1-4 month.

1% drop May - 11.

45% , fell further June to - 5.

90% , predict the import growth of soja can appear after July rebound. The entrance June is mechanical and electrical products and product of new and high technology respectively 257.

100 million dollar and 131.

600 million dollar, 52 what take specified amount of total that month entrance.

8% with 27.

1% , grew 48 compared to the same period.

7% with 49.

3% , increased 10 percent than the increase rate May, among them mechanical and electrical products increased 6 percent than 1-4 month, product of new and high technology increased near 10 percent than 1-4 month. The crude oil first half of the year and iron ore entrance continued to maintain fast growth momentum this year, among them the growth of crude oil import of 1 bottle of month is 40.

5% , iron ore is 234.

6% , the import growth June is achieved respectively 98.

4% with 237.

9% . The fast growth that these two kinds of products import, carry with current coal report oil overall strain and high to steely abidance demand are concerned on one hand, also rise with the international price of these the sources of energy and raw material on the other hand have affinity. If the crude oil June imports an amount,drop compared to the same period 7.

3 percent, but rise in price covered this one change. Iron ore imported an amount to grow 41 about June.

3% , but because rise in price, entrance amount still rose 237.

9% . Although the macroscopical adjusting control of our country reduced the demand to the sources of energy and raw material, but as a result of global demand rise, bring about the sources of energy and raw material necessarily rise in price. Accordingly, the our country import growth to the raw product such as the sources of energy and important raw material is short-term inside still won't drop apparently, although realize economic soft landing, impetus of this kind of entrance still can hold period of time. 4, reform of exit drawback mechanism affects policy sex to adjust an element to also be opposite to what export this year the foreign trade growth first half of the year produced certain effect this year. One of policy effects that about reforming active exit drawback mechanism decides, was last year exit of the end of the year appears exceed high-speed adaptability to grow. The total value of imports and exports last year December amounts to 90.4 billion dollar, grow 49% , export among them 480.

6.5 billion dollar, grow 50.

7% , entrance 423.

3.6 billion dollar, grow 47.

4% , realize favorable balance of trade that month 57.

2.9 billion dollar, not only total value of imports and exports, add fast and the favorable balance of trade that comes true that month achieves the history best level, and it is this years exit is added fast what successive prep above imports is only two months. If deduct policy of the end of the year to adjust an element, the favorable balance of trade last year will be less than 20 billion dollar. Policy affects, it is this drawback reform reduce drawback rate and " new Zhang is not owed, old debts should be returned " policy undertakes at the same time, reduced policy to adjust the adverse effect to exporting a company. It is to perplex me to export the exit drawback that the company grows to default a problem to get settlement for years above all, the contradiction that exports company capital insecurity gets great alleviate, 2004 1 quarter, the whole nation already accumulative total deals with exit drawback 838.

700 million yuan, relatively go up growth of year of the corresponding period 1.

77 times. Look for a long time from which, drawback mechanism reform will be OK have structural adjustment of hurried imports and exports, optimize the purpose with transition. Next, the elements of a few ministry of inside and outside that are helpful for exit increase, offset or reduced exit to retreat tax rate to reduce the adverse effect that produces possibly to exit. Basically include: It is to reduce exit to retreat tax rate to basically do not have an influence to improvement trade, be opposite only general commerce is influential. Because reform,be package at the same time, reducing what debt of original to the enterprise drawback accelerates while drawback is led to repay speed, the adverse effect to exit was reduced on certain level. 2 it is the response rate that different product leads reform to drawback has bigger difference. Rate of spin dress drawback reduced 4 percent, export what amplitude has fixed rate to decrease, exported amplitude to drop about compared to the same period 6% . But because this drawback drops extent is far be less than 1996, the adverse effect that exports to textile also is less than 1996. Major Electromechanical kind although the product retreated tax rate to also reduce 4 percent, but what exit suffers an effect lesser. Because the export mechanical and electrical products of our country is a foreign trader mostly,this basically is of investment company receive makings treatment, transnational corporation transfers China to produce a lot of Electromechanical export a company, dress of spin of export price unlike kind the product is so sensitive, and the effect that suffers international market demand more easily. Notable is, reform of exit drawback mechanism still puts in particular problem: It is in the center of partake with what the place exports drawback the mechanism is endless and reasonable. Before reform, exit drawback is all by central finance burden, be opposite after reform the share that exceeds cardinal number, by in the center of partake jointly with the place. Although new mechanism is to press what scale load shares to export drawback with the place in the center of value added tax, but person of this kind of practice is aggrandizement the limitation that canton delimits to commodity freedom steps condition flow, to exporting a product cross the area is purchased and flow is very adverse, may make each district " restrict one " . 2 it is a place how does drawback partake to also be put in similar problem between various government. Partake the mechanism is unreasonable the exit protectionism behaviour that causes a place possibly, namely local government is right buy from the other place, the part that this locality drawback wants in exit gives inactive treat. Cause local government to default the drawback paragraph that utters an enterprise likely if really ever since, and end up with nothing definite probably finally. This kind of new area segregation effect will be right the foreign trade of our country, use foreign capital and invest the effect with long-term and adverse generation external, should grant to pay close attention to. Watch our country improvement trade mixed first half of the year 12004 the growth circumstance unit of general commerce: 100 million dollars, %--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Month in January in Feburary in March April in May in June 1-6 month--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Project improvement trade is exported 190.

2(17.

6)206.

5(51)255.

3(45.

8)257.

5(34.

2)242.

6(32.

8)272.

5(46.

6)1424.

6 entrances 129.

6(13.

7)155.

2(69.

8)174.

6(45.

6)185.

5(41.

3)170.

4(35.

9)185.

1(50.

1)1000.

4 balance 60.

651.

380.

77272.

287.

4424.

2 general commerce are exported 154.

7(21)121.

5(20.

7)187(37.

6)198(29.

2)191.

4(31.

1)215.

9(45.

4)1068.

5 entrances 173(14.

1)201.

3(82.

4)213.

6(38.

9)229.

4(41.

3)188.

5(34.

1)219.

4(44.

3)1225.

2 balance - 18.

3-79.

8-26.

6-31.

42.

9-3.

5-156.

7-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- notes: It is inside bracket compared to the same period increase rate, data origin: Department of Commerce expresses main first half of the year 22004 heavy goods to export statistical unit: 100 million dollars, %-------------------------------------------------------------------------Breed 1-4 month exported the forehead to grow exit forehead to grow exit forehead compared to the same period compared to the same period compared to the same period in June in May-------------------------------------------------------------------------Mechanical and electrical products 89445.

424240.

127055.

Product of 7 new and high technologies 45663.

811648.

313463.

3 dress 16722.

94113.

25225.

1 spin yarn, fabric and goods 98252920.

63037 hold walkie-talkie and its part 5682.

91584.

817117.

9 shoes kind 4515.

51215.

11426.

8 integrated circuit 3087.

5892.

59100.

6 plastic products 2721.

4825.

6834.

7 box bag and similar container 1818.

1618.

3633.

8 toys 163.

340.

4513.

1 rolled steel 1344.

46105.

97127.

6 container 111.

8421.

6593.

7------------------------------------------------------------------------- data origin: Department of Commerce expresses main first half of the year 32004 heavy goods to import statistical unit: 100 million dollars, %-------------------------------------------------------------------------Breed 1-4 month exported the forehead to grow exit forehead to grow exit forehead compared to the same period compared to the same period compared to the same period in June in May-------------------------------------------------------------------------Mechanical and electrical products 91242.

323238.

125748.

Product of 7 new and high technologies 46939.

912139.

713249.

3 crude oil 9640.

525100.

43198.

4 rolled steel 7925.

715-8.

618-4.

Of 7 primary appearance plastic 6328.

21531.

41745.

5 iron ore and its concentrate 43234.

69140.

212237.

9 finished product are oily 2862.

7863.

9979.

The 3 copper that did not forging and cupreous material 2670.

859.

8648.

8 soja 2457.

13-11.

56-5.

9 cars and car batholith 2025.

849.

7510.

6 metals machine a machine tool 1737.

3436574.

5 pulp 1351.

4331371.

6 CNC Milling CNC Machining